Seaport Forecasts 10.6 Percent Macau Casino EBITDA Decline in Q3 on Softer Demand
Seaport Research Partners forecasts a 10.6% year-on-year drop in Macau casino EBITDA for the third quarter, driven by weaker high-end demand.Summary
Seaport Research Partners expects Macau casino EBITDA to fall 10.6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) down 3.8% to US$7.44 billion. The decline is attributed to softer high-end play. The mass-market segment, including slots, contracted 5.2% year-on-year and accounted for 71.9% of total GGR, down from 73.0% a year earlier. Overall margin is expected to narrow by nearly 180 basis points annually but rise 50 basis points sequentially. Analyst Vitaly Umansky noted that market share gains, cost control, and optimized player reinvestment strategies are key differentiators. He projected Q4 GGR to ease 0.7% year-on-year with EBITDA falling 3.4%, indicating continued but less severe headwinds. The Singapore casino market also showed significant softness due to the same demand weakness and reduced play after the FIFA World Cup. Among operators, Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment posted the strongest share gains, while Wynn Macau, Melco Resorts, and SJM Holdings lost share. Only Galaxy Entertainment is expected to show year-on-year property EBITDA growth, with MGM China largely flat and others in decline. This assessment comes from a Seaport memo previewing results for the six concessionaires, as reported by GGRAsia.
(Source：Sccg Management)