What prediction markets must fix to remove the “gambling” label
Prediction markets need to emphasise information over gambling to gain legitimacy and broader adoption.Summary
Prediction markets are often misunderstood as gambling platforms, opinion platforms, or crowd-intelligence engines. While some betting occurs, the key distinction is that participants are supposed to back their beliefs with information and analysis, not just hope. Originally designed to aggregate dispersed knowledge into a signal, prediction markets like the Iowa Electronic Markets have shown forecasting accuracy. However, modern platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have increasingly focused on sports contracts, which are more akin to gambling and risk being lumped with traditional betting. This is problematic because sports markets often attract fans without domain knowledge, undermining the market's intelligence value. In Africa, startups like Bayse Markets, Luno, and Busha are launching prediction markets, but regulatory treatment as gambling complicates their positioning. Experts argue that for prediction markets to shed the gambling label, they must deliberately target informed users and clarify that they aggregate conviction rather than simply take bets.
(Source：Techcabal)