The black market will be 'by far the biggest winner' of Brazil's online gambling ban, leading betting industry analyst warns
Regulus Partners warns that Brazil's online gambling ban will primarily benefit the black market, diverting billions in wagers away from regulated operators.Summary
Regulus Partners, a leading betting industry analyst, warns that the black market will be "by far the biggest winner" of Brazil's online gambling ban imposed by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva through a provisional measure taking effect October 6. The firm estimates the ban has an 85 percent chance of lasting several weeks but only a five percent chance of remaining permanently, noting it can stay in place for up to 120 days before Congress ratifies or rejects it. The National Association of Games and Lotteries says it is pursuing legal action to overturn the measure. Regulus warns that the disruption will divert regular customers to Brazil's estimated $25 billion annual black market, making them very difficult to bring back to regulated channels. The analyst also identifies the Brazilian government, which stands to lose over $2 billion in tax revenue, and bettors themselves—who will be exposed to exploitation in an unregulated shadow market—as significant losers. The move comes ahead of elections where Lula seeks a fourth term, and his challenger Flavio Bolsonaro has called the ban "populist, hypocritical and politically motivated." Major operators including Entain, Flutter Entertainment, and bet365 have been regulated and taxed in Brazil since 2023, and betting brands became prominent sponsors in Brazil's top football division.
(Source：Racing Post)